Regimic · Cross-Asset Macro Intelligence

See what happened the previous times.

Historical evidence for what is happening today: across companies, economic events and markets.

Global Risk Regime

02 Nov 2026 · 19:06 UTC
29/100
RISK OFF
Signal agreement75%Strong

The market leans towards safety today.Biggest influence: NASDAQ · Tech stocks fell sharply: weighs on risk appetite

How to read this score

The score summarizes the current market environment. Signal agreement shows how coherently the underlying inputs support the latest regime read; it is context, not a forecast probability.

Regime direction and stress magnitude answer different questions. A Risk-Off regime can coexist with Low stress when volatility and broad-market pressure remain limited.

Today in 30 Seconds

Four takeaways · one market picture
Biggest changeBITCOINBitcoin rose: more appetite for risk · +3.7 signal pts
Money movementEquities−$5.25B over 20 sessions
Leading market signalNASDAQStrong risk pressure
Watch nextNVIDIA third-quarter financial results conference call scheduled for November 17, 2026,…

Measured ETF creations / redemptions · Representative flows · not total asset-class flow

Over 20 sessions: −$5.25B out of equities, +$4.79B into cash (SGOV).

Asset class5 sessions20 sessionsShare of the funds (20 sessions)
Equities4-ETF basket+$1.73B−$5.25B14 of 20 days negative-0.4%
BondsTLT−$262M−$2.34B9 of 20 days negative-4.9%
CashSGOV+$252M+$4.79B3 of 20 days negative+4.1%
GoldIAU−$132M−$196M8 of 20 days negative-0.3%
BitcoinIBIT+$303M+$970M7 of 20 days negative+1.6%

Unusual days

  • Bonds: −$2.72B of the −$2.34B came from 2 unusual days in TLT.
  • Cash: +$1.42B of the +$4.79B came from 1 unusual day in SGOV.
  • Bitcoin: +$670M of the +$970M came from 1 unusual day in IBIT.

Measured issuer dates up to 2026-10-30. Representative iShares ETFs, not every fund of each asset class.

The day’s most important story, next to how the stock or the market moved the previous times.

WMTWalmartEarnings beat02 Nov 2026 · 16:10 UTC

Why Walmart (WMT) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Again

Zacks

The last 12 times Walmart beat earnings estimates, measured from the next session’s open:

1 session later

Past cases
12
Median move
−1.5%
Range
−3.2% to +3.0%Worst 17 Aug 2023 · best 20 Nov 2025
Times higher
3 of 12 (25%)

Average move −1.0% · vs S&P 500 −0.8% · vs sector (XLP) −1.2%

5 sessions later

Past cases
12
Median move
−0.8%
Range
−4.4% to +5.0%Worst 21 May 2026 · best 20 Nov 2025
Times higher
6 of 12 (50%)

Average move −0.1% · vs S&P 500 −0.8% · vs sector (XLP) −1.2%

Past reactions, not a probability.

All WMT history →All Historical Analogs →

Market Briefing

Evidence-based · rule-based scoring

AI summarizes sourced evidence; regime and stress scores are deterministic, rule-based calculations.

Current market read

02 Nov 2026 · 19:06 UTC

MARKET DRIVERS

  • medium · NASDAQ, S&P 500, VIX, OIL Equity markets experienced risk-off pressure with NASDAQ down -2.86% and S&P 500 down -1.82%, accompanied by a volatility surge in VIX of 12.91% to 19.42 and rising OIL prices (+2.08%). Market snapshot
  • low · US 10Y, DXY U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued official remarks regarding new fraud prevention measures in Minnesota. Source 1 ↗ Source 2 ↗

CORPORATE INTELLIGENCE

  • NVDA (sector-wide) — NVIDIA announced an expanded strategic collaboration with Meta to deploy Vera Rubin CPUs, Spectrum-X Ethernet, and BlueField-4 networking for Muse AI models. CEO Jensen Huang stated that AI agents represent a new computing paradigm, reinforcing expanding AI infrastructure hardware demand. Source 1 ↗
  • AMD (sector-wide) — AMD announced its Helios rackscale solutions and EPYC processors are powering Meta's Muse AI agent. CEO Lisa Su cited gigawatt-scale infrastructure building, confirming sustained enterprise demand for accelerated compute silicon. Source 1 ↗
  • MSFT (sector-wide) — Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet filed quarterly financial reports updating revenue and business conditions. While providing essential operational disclosures, directional stock impact requires evaluation against quarterly market expectations. Source 1 ↗ Source 2 ↗ Source 3 ↗

MARKET IMPACT

  • OIL gains (+2.08% to 104.12) paired with a drop in GOLD (-3.29% to 3898.9) indicate commodity-specific recalibration rather than broad safe-haven positioning. Market snapshot

WATCH NEXT

  • NVIDIA third-quarter financial results conference call scheduled for November 17, 2026, for guidance on datacenter AI infrastructure spending. Source 1 ↗
  • Cross-asset monitoring of VIX (19.42) and US 10Y yield (4.93) to signal whether risk-off flows persist into subsequent trading sessions. Market snapshot

Cross-Asset Market States

Completed closes and model state
Asset
Value
Last session move
State
NASDAQ
25,437.00Close 2026-10-30
-2.86%
Strong risk pressure
VIX
19.42Close 2026-10-30
+12.91%
Strong risk pressure
S&P 500
7,580.07Close 2026-10-30
-1.82%
Strong risk pressure
RUSSELL 2000
2,811.84Close 2026-10-30
-1.66%
Strong risk pressure
GOLD
$3,898.90Close 2026-10-30
-3.29%
Strong support
US 10Y
4.93%Close 2026-10-30
-6.0 bp
Supportive
BITCOIN
$78,248.45Close 2026-11-01
+1.05%
Supportive
DXY
101.88Close 2026-10-30
-0.16%
Neutral
OIL
$104.12Close 2026-10-30
+2.08%
Not in score

Oil is shown for context only: it is not one of the 8 inputs of the regime score.

Moves compare completed daily closes. Non-crypto regime inputs are aligned to the same completed U.S. market session; Bitcoin uses the latest completed UTC day. Session dates do not advance on weekends or market holidays.

Regimic provides market intelligence for informational purposes. Regime states and measured flows are analytical context, not investment advice or trade instructions.